Further tests of entreaties to avoid hypothetical bias in referendum contingent valuation
نویسندگان
چکیده
Over-estimation of willingness to pay in contingent markets has been attributed largely to hypothetical bias. One promising approach for avoiding hypothetical bias is to tell respondents enough about such bias that they self-correct for it. A script designed for this purpose by Cummings and Taylor was used in hypothetical referenda that differed in payment amount. In comparisons with behavior observed in otherwise identical real payment referenda, the script worked remarkably well at higher payment levels (dropping the likelihood of a yes vote to the level obtained in separate sample real referenda), but less well at a lower payment level. The repeated success of the script at higher payment amounts is a clear sign that additional research is warranted—research that will bring us a more complete understanding of how the entreaty works. This research may need to explore its workings at the individual respondent level. r 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved. JEL classification: Q20; Q26
منابع مشابه
Explaining the discrepancy between intentions and actions: the case of hypothetical bias in contingent valuation.
An experiment was designed to account for intention-behavior discrepancies by applying the theory of planned behavior to contingent valuation. College students (N = 160) voted in hypothetical and real payment referenda to contribute $8 to a scholarship fund. Overestimates of willingness to pay in the hypothetical referendum could not be attributed to moderately favorable latent dispositions. In...
متن کاملAn Empirical Study of Hypothetical Bias in Voluntary Contribution Contingent Valuation: Does Cheap Talk Matter?
Significant difference between response to real and hypothetical valuation questions is often referred to as hypothetical bias. The existence of hypothetical bias has been well documented in both experimental and field settings, but there is little consensus on how to systematically control for it. Cummings and Taylor have had success with using "cheap talk" (which entails reading a script that...
متن کاملA Bayesian Examination of Information and Uncertainty in Contingent Valuation
A theoretical framework is presented to explain how agents respond to information under uncertainty in contingent valuation surveys. Agents are provided with information signals and referendum prices as part of the elicitation process. Agents use Bayesian updating to revise prior distributions. An information prompt is presented to reduce hypothetical bias. However, we show the interaction betw...
متن کاملContingent valuation and real referendum behaviour
This paper compares contingent values for a hypothetical landscape protection programme with respondents’ voting behaviour in an actual referendum. We use the example of a proposed increase of expenditures for landscape protection in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. In particular we examine (i) CVM bid magnitudes of the different voter groups, (ii) relationships between qualitative response c...
متن کاملIs Hypothetical Bias a Universal Phenomenon?: A Multinational Investigation
A concern with the contingent valuation method (CVM) is the finding that hypothetical and real statements of value often differ. We test whether hypothetical bias, broadly defined, is independent of location by comparing real and hypothetical votes on a dichotomous choice referendum in China, France, Indiana, Kansas, and Niger. We find significant differences in hypothetical bias across locatio...
متن کامل